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Derechos | Equipo Nizkor
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Derechos | Equipo Nizkor
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27Dec14
As Syria's Revolution Sputters, a Chaotic Stalemate
It was a victory that President Bashar al-Assad's opponents had dreamed of: Insurgents seized a key army base in northern Syria after more than a year of trying. But the mood in this Turkish border town, flooded with Syrians who have fled both government bombings and extremist insurgents, was more bitter than celebratory.
The assault this month was led by the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda's arm in Syria, which claimed the spoils. By contrast, many of the first Syrians to rise up against Mr. Assad in 2011 -- civilian demonstrators and army defectors alike -- followed the battle from the sidelines here, unable to enter Syria under threat of death from the extremists of Nusra and its rival group, the Islamic State.
As Syria's war heads toward its fourth year, the complex battleground is increasingly divided between the government and the extremists, leaving many Syrians feeling that the revolution on which they gambled their lives and livelihoods has failed.
Different insurgent groups battle one another, even as they fight against Mr. Assad's forces and his allies, foreign Shiite militias. A chaotic stalemate reigns in a war that has killed more than 200,000 people and wounded one million.
In northern and eastern Syria, where Mr. Assad's opponents won early victories and once dreamed of building self-government, the nationalist rebel groups calling themselves the Free Syrian Army are forced to operate under the extremists' umbrellas, to go underground or to flee, according to Syrian insurgents, activists and two top commanders of the American-financed F.S.A. groups.
"The revolution now is sleeping," said Maysara, a landowner from the northern Syrian town of Saraqeb who asked to be identified only by his first name for his safety. He organized some of the first residents there to take up arms in 2011, but has recently shifted his focus to helping refugees as he studies Turkish in Antakya and his fighters, 30 in all, reduce their ambitions to guarding their town.
"We don't know when it will wake up," he said at a deserted hotel cafe that two years ago bustled with activists, fighters and their financiers. "Syrians will give birth to more children, and maybe they will continue this revolution."
The Syrian government is facing its own problems. While Mr. Assad appears unlikely to fall by force, he also seems unable to reassert full control over the country. Despite taking back most of the central city of Homs, government forces have not dislodged insurgents from the Al-Waer district. They have faced new attacks from extremists in the east and south and have been trying for months to encircle insurgents in the city of Aleppo.
Mounting army casualties have left government supporters tired and grieving; some are resentful. There have been tensions in the southern province of Sweida, residents say, after the government tried to renege on an agreement to allow young men to serve in local defense forces and instead draft them into the army.
A Syrian who speaks regularly to security officials and leaders from Mr. Assad's minority Alawite sect, an important component of his base, said recently that a growing number would welcome a political settlement. But with Mr. Assad's inner circle adamantly opposed to any compromise, he said, the country will face a long insurgency.
"Nobody believes it will end in 10 years as long as he is in power," he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity for his safety. He added that Alawites kept their discontent largely underground because most believed that their choice was between Mr. Assad and extremists bent on slaughtering them.
In Istanbul, Antakya and the nearby town of Reyhanli this month, numerous insurgents and civilian activists who oppose Mr. Assad, Nusra and Islamic State, also known as ISIS, said that most of Syria would eventually be controlled either by those extremist groups or by the government.
The fall of the army base at Wadi al-Deif, which straddles an important supply route in Idlib Province, proved the Nusra Front's dominance, they said. Other insurgents had long besieged the base without victory. Nusra succeeded after seizing much of the province from Harakat Hazm and the Syrian Revolutionaries Front, two of several groups that until recently, American officials were calling the opposition's new hope.
Those groups had received sophisticated American-made TOW antitank missiles, and their commanders expected to act as the ground force in the American-led campaign against ISIS. But lately they say the flow of American aid has dwindled as Washington's strategy shifts to building a new force from scratch.
How exactly the Wadi al-Deif battle unfolded remains murky, with different commanders giving different versions. But reports and images from the operation make two things clear: antitank missiles were used, and Nusra claimed the victory. That means that the American-backed fighters could advance only by working with the Nusra Front, which the United States government lists as a terrorist group, or that they have lost the weapons to the Nusra fighters, effectively joined the group or been forced to follow its orders.
One commander of a group that received antitank missiles said that some F.S.A. fighters were forced to operate them in the battle on behalf of the Nusra Front, which had captured them from American-backed groups -- a turn of events that he worried would lead the United States to cut off support.
He bitterly likened the F.S.A. to prostitutes, speaking on the condition of anonymity to avoid alienating American officials. "If I wear Arabic dress and let my beard grow, the West will hate me and Nusra will love me, and vice versa. We are kissing everyone's rear to get support."
Abu Kumayt, a fighter with the Syrian Revolutionaries Front who said he fought in the battle under cover, gave a slightly different version. He said that groups with the antitank missiles fought alongside Nusra fighters and under their command -- but that only Nusra and its Islamist ally Ahrar al-Sham were allowed to enter the base when it fell. Nusra, he said, lets groups vetted by the United States keep the appearance of independence, so that they will continue to receive American supplies.
His group's commander, Jamal Maarouf, has been unable to enter Syria since his fighters were driven from their base in Idlib Province this fall. In his house in Reyhanli, near Antakya, he blamed anemic Western support and a mistake that he and other fighters made: They initially welcomed Nusra's foreign jihadists, believing that they would help bring victory.
"No F.S.A. faction in the north can operate without Nusra's approval," Mr. Maarouf said, adding that the front had either bought or terrorized F.S.A. fighters into compliance. "Nusra cannot cover every area so they still need them. But once they take control, they will confiscate all weapons or oblige those factions to pledge allegiance."
In southern Syria, rebels trained and equipped under a covert C.I.A. program retain more freedom of movement and have claimed advances recently, but insurgents familiar with the battles say most of their successes have come with the help of Nusra fighters who weaken government defenses with suicide bombings.
Mr. Maarouf and his men, echoing a common new refrain in the Syrian opposition, said they believed that the United States and other countries wanted Syria's territory split between Mr. Assad and the Sunni extremist Islamists, to simplify the complex battleground and justify an eventual settlement that would keep Mr. Assad, or most of his government, in power.
When their visitors reacted with blank looks and silence, another fighter, Abu Humam, said: "You feel dizzy -- imagine how we feel. It is like this weather." He pointed to thick fog outside the window.
Outside, he confided that his family, including a 3-month-old baby, was stranded in the government-controlled city of Idlib. He could not enter Syria to see them. Tears filled his eyes.
[Source: By Anne Barnard, The New York Times, Antakya, Tur, 27Dec14]
 | This document has been published on 31Dec14 by the Equipo Nizkor and Derechos Human Rights. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. |