EQUIPO NIZKOR |
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24Feb12
The Russians must accept that their interests are best served by regime change
There comes a point in every conflict when the world suddenly wakes up to the full horror of what is taking place in some far-away war zone, and demands that effective and immediate action is taken to end the bloodshed. The West's refusal to get involved in the Bosnian conflict in the 1990s became unsustainable following the Srebrenica massacre. And in Libya last year, Colonel Gaddafi's threat to slaughter the citizens of Benghazi led to military intervention, and the eventual overthrow of his brutal dictatorship.
Without in any way detracting from the sacrifices made by the thousands of Syrian civilians who have been killed, tortured and maimed at the hands of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, I believe that this week's cold-blooded murder of my colleague and friend Marie Colvin could have a similar effect on the ultimate outcome of the Syrian conflict.
The anti-government protests have now been taking place for the best part of a year, and the UN estimates that more than 5,000 people have died since Assad launched his murderous repression. Hardly a day passes when we are not treated to yet another example of the brutality of the regime, whether it is boys being tortured to death for throwing stones at soldiers, or the massacre of innocent civilians.
And yet, because Russia and China refuse to sanction any form of intervention in Syria to stop the bloodshed, the West has been able to indulge in little more than hand-wringing. Europe and the US have hit the Assad regime with economic sanctions, but these are unlikely to be a game-changer as long as Syria can smuggle goods across its porous borders at will.
The world must be rid of the odious clique of Alawite thugs in Damascus. It would be fitting if the appalling deaths of Colvin and the 28-year-old French journalist Remi Ochlik, after they were hit by missiles fired by pro-Assad forces, helped persuade the remaining countries allied to the Syrian government that the game is up, and that the president and his forces must be prevented from inflicting any further suffering on the country's people.
There seems little doubt that Colvin - one of the outstanding journalists of her generation - was murdered to stop her from providing graphic and heartrending accounts of the human tragedy unfolding in Homs. This, after all, is a regime that punishes journalists who write disobliging articles by pouring acid into their eyes. Colvin clearly provoked Assad's ire, especially when, in one of her last dispatches, she gave a heart-rending account of a baby dying through lack of medical care - an account that travelled around the world.
It is not only journalists who are being targeted by Assad's assassins. Yesterday, a team of independent UN investigators concluded that his supporters had committed numerous atrocities, such as killing unarmed women and children, shelling residential areas and torturing wounded prisoners in hospitals, all on the direct orders of security chiefs. When this is all over, there will be ample evidence to justify war crimes charges against the president and his senior officials.
Even the Russians, who have vigorously opposed calls by the West and the Arab League for the regime to stand down, must realise that Assad is on the ropes, and that their long-term interests will be better served if his clan is consigned to the history books, along with the region's other secular dictators. If the Russians withdrew their support, then the West would have free rein to use all means at its disposal - including military intervention - to overthrow this detestable mob. In many respects Moscow's attachment to the Syrian leadership is a relic of the Cold War, when the quasi-communist Ba'athists were seen as a reliable bulwark against pro-Western, democratic states such as Israel and Lebanon. The Syrian port of Tartus provides the Russian navy with its only base outside the old Soviet Union.
Committed nationalists such as Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, will argue that Western calls for regime change are an attempt to curb Russian influence. But it cannot be beyond the wit of Western diplomats to reassure the Russians that the desire to prevent Assad from committing further atrocities is motivated by humanitarian concerns, not strategic objectives. There could even be a deal to allow the Russians to keep their precious naval base - so long as they dropped their objection to political change.
Certainly, there is little doubt that, without Russian support, the Syrian dictatorship's chances of survival are minimal. The economy, for all the support Russia and Iran provide, is on the verge of collapse. Indeed, the parlous state of Iran's economy following the imposition of a new round of sanctions means that Tehran is no longer in a position to provide its long-standing ally with substantial economic assistance.
Nor is there any guarantee that the Syrian authorities can continue to rely on their troops to carry on massacring innocent civilians. Units such as the 4th Mechanised Division, which are mainly comprised of soldiers drawn from the minority Alawite community, might remain loyal to Assad, but the rest of the military could easily join the rebels, as happened in Libya during the revolt against Gaddafi.
If that happens, it may be that the Assads should be provided with a safe haven. Russia and Iran have been mentioned as destinations. But surely, if the deaths of Marie Colvin and the thousands of Syrians who have perished are to be avenged, then the best place for this man and his henchmen is in the dock at the International Criminal Court in the Hague.
[Source: The Telegraph, London, 24Feb12]
 | This document has been published on 03Aug12 by the Equipo Nizkor and Derechos Human Rights. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. |